A new analysis of the public discussion in social media shows polarization and distrust in public debate can threaten the core of our democracies.
In this report we examine the threats to democracy in Nordic countries, focusing on polarization and distrust in Sweden, Norway, and Denmark. Using a detailed social media analysis of 31,000 posts and 750,000 comments, it uncovers how public discourse reflects varying levels of societal division.
Insight for change
The purpose has been to provide a data-driven overview of online and public opinion-based threats to democracy. This data can be used to:
- Understand how and why polarization and distrust grows in each country
- Allow governments, civil society, and citizens to actively counter these threats.
- Create an early warning system to take timely action.
- Establish a benchmark to measure if efforts to counter them are working.
Methods
- We have identified national actors in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden
- Within each country, actors are categorized into three main groups: political actors, media outlets, and civil society. This process ultimately resulted in a source population of 1650 verified pages from the three countries
- All Facebook posts—and the posts’ metadata—for the 1650 identified Facebook pages were collected using the Facebook Graph API between 01. January 2024 and 1. October 2024
- We utilized a keyword based dictionary search method to identify posts about six different topics. In total, this amounts to more than 31.000 posts with 750.00 comments. This means we have not investigated all topics, but focused on those we know from earlier reports are often heated and polarized.
- We coded all 750.000 comments on two scales from 1-100: i) polarization (affective) and ii) distrust (towards media, politicians and political processes.
- Finally, we analyzed the data. Both quantitative and qualitative assessments were conducted. This report is a product of this effort
Results
While Sweden is slightly more polarized than Denmark and Norway, it is the issues such as the Gaza conflict, the Ukraine war, and gang violence, which intensify distrust in democratic institutions and media. Our “Danger to Democracy Index” quantifies these challenges, showing how dialogue deteriorates and hostility grows. The analysis warns of increasing societal fragmentation, with Sweden facing a potential crisis in democratic confidence, as public calls for authoritarian measures signal deepening discontent with democratic principles.
Ways forward
The findings of this report were presented at the Annual Nordic Democracy Forum 2024 to inspire discussions and lay the groundwork for initiatives to safeguard democracies. We hope the Danger to Democracy Index will enhance understanding of the state of democracy within each country while serving as an “early warning system” across the region. Nordic Safe Cities firmly believes that trust is a fragile commodity that requires constant nurturing. Trust is not uniformly distributed within society—factors such as income, background, and place of residence influence trust in government, media, and institutions. Our work prioritizes collaboration and dialogue among governments, citizens, and civil society.
Read the analysis here
